Breaking Point: How Ukraine's Counteroffensive Will Shape the Ongoing War

As Kiev thrusts its long-awaited counteroffensive into motion, Western allies must debate amongst themselves what a Ukraine victory looks like.

A week ago, on the eighth of July, Ukraine launched its much-awaited counteroffensive, after months of buildup. Equipped with Western tanks, artillery, drones and newly trained soldiers, the Kiev Regime hopes that this next chapter will be the final act in the 14-month-long bloody conflict. It comes amid speculation that Ukraine will try to breach Russia’s defensive lines in the Zaporizhzia and Donetsk Oblasts, which would threaten the land bridge connecting Crimea with the Donbas, and allow Ukraine to target the critical arteries of Russia’s supply lines.

However, expectations of a swift victory have been dashed. Progress has been slow and high in blood. So far, the Ukrainians have only been able to claim victory over the capture of three small, rural settlements, all of which reside miles from the first Russian defensive lines. It’s also unlikely that Ukraine will be able to maintain its foothold in these recent gains for much longer due to the volatility of the region. Russian forces only need to launch a minor counteroffensive to bombard the measly resistance back into submission and retake the territory, something Western analysts expect them to attempt over the coming days. If that wasn’t humiliating enough, Ukraine has also lost several Western-supplied tanks and armoured vehicles in the initial days of the offensive, highlighting how this phase of the war will be the most brutal yet.

So, why is this counteroffensive so important? Well, after being supplied by Western forces for several months now, Ukraine is under an obligation to prove that they can make good use of these funds in reversing the tide of the war. Both sides know privately that the war will be decided through peaceful negotiations, but neither side is willing to face the humiliation of calling for an end to hostilities just yet. Instead, they have bunkered down in the resolve that another push must take place to shape the lines of the conflict before peace can commence.

However, before they can realise that dream, Ukrainian troops must advance past multiple layers of Russian fortifications. In front of their path lies the most extensive set of defensive lines constructed since WW2, including complex minefields of anti-tank and antipersonnel mines, dragon teeth, trenches and fox holes. Military history has long shown that it is much harder to take territory than it is to defend it. This is partly why Russian troops did not make it to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, last year after President Vladimir Putin sent them across the border. Ukrainian forces trying to push forward into these areas will most likely be closely tracked by Russian drones and targeted by Russian artillery. And near the main Russian defensive lines are properly dug trenches and concrete-reinforced firing posts, tank obstacles, ground-laid cable to coordinate artillery strikes and even more mines. At the same time, Ukrainian troops must try not to let weak spots coax them into venturing too deep behind enemy lines before they have adequate reinforcements, otherwise they face the prospect of being encircled. If Ukraine is struggling to breach the first settlements, miles away from the main defensive lines, then it doesn’t seem like a substantial breach will materialise any time soon.

To make matters worse for the Ukrainians, since the beginning of the war, when Russia faced humiliating setbacks, their enemy has shifted tactics, improving discipline, coordination and air support, foreshadowing a changing war. Russian armoured columns, for instance, no longer rush into areas where they can be quickly damaged or destroyed, and troops are more often using drones and probing attacks to find Ukrainian trenches before striking. Russia’s air defences remain punishing, as do its abilities to jam radios and down drones. These improvements, Western officials say, will most likely make Russia a tougher opponent, particularly as it fights defensively, playing to its battlefield strengths.

Based on the current circumstances, I believe it is safe to predict that the conflict will descend into another war of attrition, similar to what Europe found itself in during WW1. Expect months of intense, grinding warfare until both sides settle down again for the winter. A few towns and settlements will swap hands, cities will continue to burn and thousands of men will be sent to the slaughterhouse. Until Western states realise that Ukraine will be unable to recapture all of its lost territory, the madness will continue.