Reform's Bellwether Election
The upcoming local elections on the 1st of May are a chance for the rightwing insurgent party to translate its momentum into tangible electoral gains, offering a tectonic shift in British politics.
Local elections rarely hold much significant in the UK given powerless local authorities are, but this year’s slew of battlegrounds - spanning the rural countryside of Lincolnshire to the post-industrial urban centres of the North East - offer a glimpse at the shifting dynamics of Britain’s evolving political landscape, now the most volatile it has been in decades. Inconsequential perhaps any other year, these upcoming elections could set the political narrative for the rest of this parliamentary term.
The story of these locals may perhaps be the emergence of a truly multi-party Britain, as it’s the old Labour vs Conservative battlegrounds that Reform has in its sights while the Greens and Liberal Democrats hope to galvanise left-wing agitation to Labour’s recent austerity drive.
As the polls suggest, the contest is wide open. The Conservatives are in the worst position as they are defending the most seats in more than 900 wards, which they won at the high-water mark of Boris Johnson’s popularity in 2021. Of the 23 authorities holding elections, 19 are controlled by the Conservatives and just one by Labour, with the others under no overall control.
Labour, besieged on all sides thanks to some of the ruthless measures they’ve been forced to take in office, is not in the strongest position. But the party has little to defend this year, and I wager there is even room for growth. Many of its MPs represent these shire England seats (having taken them off the Conservatives in 2024). The question is whether they can convert this into a strong local government base. While Labour is a few points below where it was in 2021, the Conservatives are down almost 20 points from 2021 and in first-past-the-post contests, that difference in support could grant Labour more than enough marginal wins to record net gains rather than losses on 1 May. This is far from guaranteed, but something to be mindful of.
Meanwhile, in the Home Counties and the West Country, the Liberal Democrats are determined to reinforce their parliamentary gains with local success. There is a chance they can continue to chisel away at the so-called Blue Wall in the country’s southwest, entrenching their support amongst affluent rural voters. The Greens, likewise, may be hoping to make gains in unexpected places, winning rural seats from the Conservatives and more urban areas from Labour.
When these seats were last up for election, it was set against the backdrop of a fairly successful vaccine rollout, which contributed to the final results, almost a mirror image of the 2019 general election: a sea of deep blue, as the Conservatives swept convincing across the country. Four years later, the UK couldn’t be anymore different. What had then been a sense of optimism - newly freed from the oppressive lockdowns, looking ahead to the post-Covid world - has now been replaced by a gloomy and defeatist spirit, as voters seem almost resigned to terminal decline.
Everyone has their own examples of this granular decay. Think of the rats, so plump off Birmingham rubbish, they’re now the size of cats; or the metal security tags protecting £4 fish fillets; or the depthless cring of police officers who dress up as Batman and Robin to catch con-artists within spitting distance of Parliament.
The decay runs much deeper. Falling living standards and a death of well paid jobs creating an expectation gap, seeding resentment and apathy through whole generations. The creeping normalisation of identiarian factionalism across British life, both daily and political, weakens our ability to function as a coherent nation. Unprecedented levels of immigration produce growing anxiety in the majority population, an anxiety that may metastasise into something darker if left untreated. Finally and perhaps more damingly of all, a rising crisis of government illegitimacy.
All of these conditions provide the fertile ground necessary for a populist uprising, one which Reform hopes to spearhead. Farage, while assailed by his fair share of scandals, has masterfully filled in this vacuum of leadership, weaponising discontent against the Conservative-Labour duopoly in an anti-establishment crusade that threatens to fundamentally reshape not just British politics but British society as well.
The party hopes to prove it can win votes off the Conservatives and Labour alike and have what it takes to be a serious force in politics. Now leading most opinion polls, the party is snapping at the heels of the Conservatives on the east coast of England, and in the Midlands, and in Kent. Lancashire, once a clear Conservative vs Labour fight, is now a three-way. Reform wants to win big in Burnley and Accrington, and may pull off a surprise in Morecambe and Lytham St Annes.
Out of all the contests taking place in the local elections on 1 May – council seats, mayors, even a by-election – the mayoralty for the new Greater Lincolnshire Combined County Authority is perhaps the most consequential, not just for the residents of Lincolnshire, but for the story it holds for the rest of the country.
Beyond the historic market square, Boston displays all the familiar signs of a decaying English town: empty shop fronts sandwiched between bookies and discount stores, anti-social youth loitering about. These issues – the hollowing out of the town centre, farming, transport, immigration - most animated the candidates. A fierce debate broke out about Ed Miliband’s climate agenda, and net zero in general. There were calls to prioritise food security and condemnation of putting solar panels on prime agricultural land. What is abundantly clear is that the sense of dissatisfaction with Westminster has only grown, fuelled by Labour decisions to restrict winter fuel payments and change inheritance tax rules on farms – critical in an area that relies so heavily on agriculture.
It is here, in the part of the country that most heavily voted Leave in 2016, that we will see if the momentum Nigel Farage’s Reform Party has been building since the general election translates into concrete results. Andrea Jenkyns, Reform’s candidate, is hoping to win in a traditionally conservative region. Her prospects in this race after defecting are being watched closely by other Tories dispirited by the state of their party and wondering if Reform might offer a viable alternative.
Panicked conversations are underway in Conservative circles regarding a potential merger or electoral pact with Reform – even the removal of Badenoch and appointment of a “unite the right” leader who can bring the two parties together. Last week, the Telegraph published a leaked recording of the Tory MP Esther McVey suggesting her party should “let” Reform win the Runcorn by-election on 1 May as part of an electoral pact where Reform would stand aside in places the Conservatives have greater chance of winning, and vice versa. It comes as Robert Jenrick, a rising star on the party’s right, has publicly voiced support for a potential merger.
That message isn’t just to disillusioned voters wondering which box to tick on their ballots. If Andrea Jenkyns can win for Reform in Lincolnshire, what does that say to other disgruntled Conservatives? The narrative here – of a Brexit-backing, Boris Johnson-era Conservative defecting to Reform and then winning – would turbocharge fears of the Tories’ demise. Conservative politicians are said to be watching intently.
If Jenkyns does win, the Tory party is braced for further defections – and for a renewed frenzy over a potential deal or even merger. But if she doesn’t, some of the momentum Reform has built up will slow. The party has poured everything it has into Lincolnshire. If it can’t win here, doubts will emerge over how solid it’s polling figures really are.
Reform leads the Conservatives by two points nationally. It has momentum. And Farage leads Badenoch on public preference for prime minister. But the stakes are high: to break the mould of politics in Britain, Reform needs to demonstrate it can make widespread electoral gains.
If Reform succeeds against Labour, either in the by-election or on councils, then fearful Labour MPs could tack right and demand Starmer do likewise. Blue Labour could become the norm, not the exception, in the factional fights over conference season. If Reform succeeds against the Tories, then Badenoch’s status as a non-entity leader will be confirmed. If Reform fails, however, then all the talk of Farage running the largest party come the next election would turn out to be little more than noise.