Sunak's Gamble
As the Tories continue to decline in the polls, leading Conservative members try desperately to salvage their dignity - and their seats.
It’s no secret that the Conservatives are in disarray.
For the past year, the party has been trailing Labour by an average of 20 points in the polls and, after 13 years in power, apathy is the only word adequate enough to describe the government’s actions (or lack thereof). Even senior Conservatives have seen the writing of the wall, with many privately admitting that the next election is a foregone conclusion.
One would expect this to be the time of action, for the government to roll out a string of policies intended to boost their popularity with the public ahead of an expected general election next year, but, so far, this has been virtually nonexistent. The prime minister’s plan to restructure the education curriculum around Maths failed abysmally, plans to alleviate the burdens placed on renters by calming rising mortgage costs dissolved into the background, the government’s strategy to curb illegal immigration has yielded no results so far, and inflation is still at a record-high. If Sunak’s perceived passion deficit wasn’t bad enough, his government is still trying to rein in the cost of living, ease strain on the NHS, and resolve industrial disputes. So, not only is this government directionless, but when it actually has a mission, it fails disastrously in accomplishing it.
No clearer sign of the party’s resignation for defeat has been it’s recent anti-green swerve. With Sunak promising this week to campaign for motorists, cutting the cost of polluting, and launching a swathe of new North Sea oil licenses, the years of broad U.K. climate consensus appear to be over. Despite calls from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), an official advisory board for U.K. climate policy, that current policies are not enough to meet future goals, Sunak is pumping the brakes and calling it pragmatism. Judging by their actions, the Conservatives don’t anticipate any of this being their problem. Rather than governing, they seem to already be defining themselves in opposition. Sunak has spent the last few weeks attacking Labour for their more overly ambitious climate plans, painting Keir Starmer as a collaborationist with radical climate groups like Extinction Rebellion and Stop Oil, in the hope that he can prevent the Conservatives from hemorrhaging votes in the so-called Blue Wall, southern commuter towns where climate activist disruptions have become a major topic.
Still, this may not be enough to satisfy the Conservative electorate. “Incremental change and saying we’ve got the show back on the road is not going to work,” said James Frayne, a former Conservative adviser who now leads the focus group agency Public First. “We’ve gone way beyond that because we’re getting to the point where people are just not listening anymore.” Frayne isn’t alone in this observation. A group of backbencher Tories recently launched a new pressure group to challenge what they perceive to be Sunak’s reluctance to govern conservatively. Aiming to shape the party’s manifesto ahead of the next election, the New Conservatives hope to steer Sunak in a more rightward direction, placing a greater focus on curbing immigration, which still remains a critical wedge issue for most voters.
However, it’s incredibly difficult to make the argument that your party will resolve an issue when you have held the reigns of power for nearly a decade and a half and that issue has only been exacerbated under your governance. Why would voters expect your government to fix that? Any groundbreaking, ambitious plans announced now risk being seen as a desperate plot by a party that is grappling with an identity crisis and coming to terms with the fact that their invincibility is wearing thin. Thus, the pivotal issue facing the Conservatives isn’t just one of policies, but of trust.
To remedy any of this, when he returns from the summer recess, Sunak needs to outline a clear plan, surround himself with competent ministers, and perhaps, if necessary, reshuffle his cabinet and persevere with his targets. If the goals are met and the government can provide some much-needed political and economic stability, then the voters will reward him. While it might not be enough to win the next election, it might be enough to deny Labour a supermajority, as polls currently predict they’re on track for, and save the Conservative party from a humiliating result.
The beauty of the flexibility provided by the UK constitution means that Sunak has another year until he is compelled to call an election. How wisely he decides to use that time remains to be seen.