The Candidates Vying To Be Trump's VP
A run-down of the Republican candidates being eyed to compliment Trump's campaign ticket.
In the political world, conventional wisdom seems to hold that a presidential candidate should always select a running mate that addresses their inherent weaknesses. If you’re an old, white guy from Wilmington, Delaware, you pick a young, black woman from California to galvanise the younger, more biracial generation that might not be as enamored with you. If you’re a billionaire philanthropist from New York City with no prior executive experience, you pick an austere veteran of Christian politics to endear yourself with the powerful evangelical bloc that dominates your party and voter base.
This contract has existed since the very beginning of American politics. And while the VP nomination is less consequential than it has been in the past, in this era of social polarization, it still holds massive weight. Any demographic, no matter how small, is vital for a candidate to inch over the finishing line.
Having won Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada by more than 50 percent, and polling in South Carolina, and the upcoming primaries showing him with a commanding lead, Trump’s dominance over the Republican Party is all but assured. The next logical question to ask is: ‘Who will he choose as his running mate?’
As the predictable auditions and adulations by the V.P. suitors begin, the list of possibilities has ballooned. Talk in the media has shifted to whether Trump should choose a political outsider or an insider. A man or a woman. A legislator or an executive.
Perhaps, the question is less of ‘who? and more ‘why?’
Faced with piling civil lawsuits and a hostile media apparatus, Trump will not just be seeking a VP who can help him win support and govern effectively, he will also be looking for someone willing to accompany him as he embarks on a ruthless vendetta against his political opponents. Following Mike Pence’s refusal to overturn the results of the 2020 US Election, which earned the former vice-president a pariah status in conservative circles, Donald Trump has, according to close insiders, emphasised loyalty as the prominent factor deciding his next pick. Hoping to avoid another Pence, he will be craving someone who can demonstrate loyalty under pressure from the so-called ‘Deep State’. Politics is, after all, the art of addition, not subtraction. A candidate who can be both loyal, docile and fawning at the same time will be high on Trump’s radar.
With Republican strategists worried about a widening gender divide, as female suburban voters abandon the party over its stance on abortion, gender may play a more influential role in the nomination process than it has in the past.
With all that said, here are the top contenders for Trump’s V.P.
Elise Stefanik
Mr. Trump seems to hold a soft spot for Republicans that he has been able to convert into zealous loyalists, and few embody such a radical conversion as Elise Stefanik. Elected in 2015, the Representative from upper New York City entered the scene as an unabashed moderate conservative, having supported Ted Cruz’s presidential bid and aligning herself with the Republicans more open to striking a consensus with their opponents on the other side of the aisle.
Her current manifestation couldn’t be any more different. On several occasions, Stefanik has shown a willingness to defend Trump from attacks. She worked on his first impeachment defence team, referred to the January 6th protestors imprisoned for their role in the insurrection as “hostages,” and was the first elected official to endorse his presidential campaign in the aftermath of the 2022 midterms, at a time when some Republicans were hesitant about Trump’s political capital after most of his appointed candidates had fizzled out spectacularly. More recently, Stefanik garnered international publicity for her attacks on Ivy League College Presidents over their handling of antisemitism on campus, which saw two high-profile resignations. Trump and his team were reportedly impressed with her performance.
Having served in the House GOP leadership as Chair of the House Republican Conference, and working in the White House and on presidential campaigns, picking Stefanik would bequeath him someone experienced in the power corridors of Congress, and, perhaps, provide a way of stabilising his turbulent relationship with establishment Republicans.
As a woman, she may also mitigate some of the damage from one of the few tools left in the Democrats’ arsenal: abortion. If Trump hopes to stem the haemorrhaging of female suburban voters that left the Party in an exodus in 2020, gifting Biden a narrow win in places like Georgia and Pennsylvania, picking Stefanik wouldn’t be a bad decision.
Kristi Noem
As Governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem has made a name for herself as a political outsider, someone unafraid to invoke the ire of the political establishment if it meant delivering for her constituents. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, she kept South Dakotan businesses open, refused to issue a statewide mandate to wear face masks, and encouraged businesses from neighbouring states to migrate to what she called her ‘bastion of freedom’. Despite overseeing a large surge in hospitalisation and casualty rates, a trend health experts attributed to her laissez-faire approach to the pandemic, Noem managed to brush it aside and her popularity has remained high, both in her state and amongst Republican voters.
Noem’s maverick tendencies would lend well to Trump’s brash, assertive style of politics, and there’s a sense that she would fit well amongst his cohorts. Politically, however, she doesn’t add much. Governing a small state, she may be far too rural and MAGA to help sway suburban women, which is presumably what Trump hopes a female candidate will do. There are also allegations that Noem, who is married, had a romantic relationship with Trump operative Corey Lewandowski, threatening to mire her candidacy in controversy. Overall, she seems like a low-risk, low-reward possibility.
Kari Lake
Having never held public office (despite her unfounded claims of winning the 2022 Arizonian Gubernatorial election), Lake is an abnormality on this list. A former TV news anchor, she has quickly risen to become one of Trump's most willing surrogates, stumping for him in states like Iowa despite currently campaigning to succeed Kyrsten Sinema as Senator of Arizona.
Sharing Trump’s affinity for claims of election fraud, Lake would have no aversion to supporting the former president in another battle with the States and courts if the US election ends in a narrow race again. Despite these favourable characteristics, it’s hard to think of why Trump would pick a politically inexperienced candidate over more established candidates, who can provide him with loyalty and also connections in Congress.
J.D. Vance
A former venture capitalist, the Yale-educated senator from Ohio rose to national prominence for his best-selling book ‘Hillbilly Elegy’, a memoir that followed his working-class upbringing in the de-industrialised rust belt. Vance’s story particularly resonated with the core supporters who were instrumental in helping Trump sweep into office in 2016, when he won the so-called Blue Wall, a selection of post-industrial states that had voted for the Democrats consistently since 1988.
Like Stefanik, Vance has revamped his image, going from a self-described “Never-Trumper,” who lambasted Trump’s crass and unorthodox behaviour, to openly embracing it. Having won office in 2022 (no thanks to an endorsement from Trump, which catapulted him into victory in the primaries), Vance has sought to position himself as a champion of the communities left behind by globalisation and free trade, grievances that animate a large swathe of the Republican base. Vance as his VP would augment Trump’s play for the Midwest.
Vivek Ramaswamy
If Trump values loyalty above all else, no candidate on this list demonstrates that more than Vivek Ramaswamy, who displayed an almost zealous devotion to the former President while running in the Republican Primaries. The former tech entrepreneur was met with chants of ‘VP!’ when he took the stage to endorse Donald Trump after exiting from the primaries, suggesting that, although he failed to win over the hearts and minds of the Republican base, he may have succeeded in increasing his name recognition.
Ramaswamy is politically inexperienced, however, and his unfavorability rating has nearly doubled since the primary debates, according to a FiveThirtyEight average of polls. He also doesn't originate from a particularly competitive state, with Ohio being firmly in the GOP’s camp, and there’s little to suggest he could attract the moderate independents necessary for victory.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
As his former White House Press Secretary, Sanders, under the intense scrutiny of the media, made a name for herself as one of Trump’s fiercest defenders, contorting the truth to levels unseen before and deflecting from some of his most asinine proclamations.
Her stock has only risen after becoming Governor of Arkansas, where she has led an unabashed social-conservative agenda, championing parental rights in school choice, slashing taxes, gutting regulations and leading a war on so-called ‘woke indoctrination’. Having delivered the GOP response to President Biden’s State of the Union earlier last year, a prestigious role often reserved for a party’s eminent operators, Sanders is seen as a rising star in the party who can appeal to suburban women.
If Trump is looking for a loyal, conservative woman who can placate the Republican base, Sanders would be at the top of that list.
Tim Scott
On the campaign trail, Trump has made it clear that he hopes to attract more voters of colour to his coalition. Picking a senior African-American Senator could help him in that regard.
Scott had previously appeared to rule out serving as Trump’s No. 2, telling reporters upon his departure from the race: “Being vice president has never been on my to-do list for this campaign, and it’s certainly not there now.” But his stock may be on the rise after appearing alongside Trump at his New Hampshire victory rally after his win in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Despite lacking the same level of charisma as the former president, Scott still offers notable advantages. He has proven to be a strong fundraiser, has a strong working relationship with senior Republicans in Congress, closely worked with the Trump administration to develop opportunity zones for low-income communities, and his public discussion of his faith could ease any lingering concerns among the religious right.