The Official Conservative Leadership Tier List

Ranking the Conservative future leadership contenders that could replace Sunak.

When I first submitted this article in the early autumn of 2023, the Conservative Party was coasting on a wave of optimism and success. Inflation had begun to wind down. Sunak, due to sheer luck than skillful maneuvering, had evaded most of the political pitfalls from the preceding summer and there was a sense that the febrile political environment was cooling down, paving the way forward for a gradual climb in the polls next year before triggering the election on favourable grounds.

Now, nine months later, with a general election campaign in full swing, things have never looked bleaker for the Sunak’s Conservative Party. Over 90 MPs have announced their decision to stand-down, including party veterans like former PM Theresa May and Housing Secretary Michael Gove. The party is still struggling to find enough candidates to field in the upcoming election, even in traditional strongholds. Recent polling projections even have the party on as few seats as in the mid-20s, eclipsed by the Liberal Democrats as the second largest party in the House of Commons. If that wasn’t daunting enough: just today, Nigel Farage, the charismatic provocateur, adored by right-wing voters across the country, replaced Richard Tice as leader of Reform UK, announcing his intention to contest the Clacton constituency at the next election.

While much can change in the next few weeks, all signs seem to indicate that the Conservatives are on track for a humiliating defeat, perhaps the worst they have suffered in their 200 years of existence. Opinion polls show Labour's double-digit lead growing – not narrowing, as many Conservative MPs had hoped would happen by now – while the bleak economic backdrop of stubborn inflation and soaring interest rates has prompted fears that the likelihood of victory at the next general election is now even slimmer than it was just a few months ago. If current polling is repeated in an election, the party could fall below 100 seats for the first in its history, a net loss of 250. Some of the projections even have the party on fewer than 30 seats, eclipsed by the Liberal Democrats as the second largest party in the House of Commons. It should be no surprise then that questions have already begun swirling around Rishi Sunak’s political future, and it seems clear that in the face of such a devastating result, he will not last long as the party’s leader.

Despondent and braced for the possibility of wandering the political wilderness for a decade, conservatives will have to appoint a new leader and decide on a new political strategy. Will they double down on social conservative dogma in a bid to appeal to the growing Americanisation of British politics? Or will they opt for a more moderate approach, hoping to make inroads with the centrist suburban voters in the Blue Wall that have deserted them for the Liberal Democrats in recent years? The answer to that question predominantly rests on who MPs and party members vote for in the aftermath of the 2024 UK Election.

Below, I have gathered together the most likely candidates, ranked on the probability of them winning. I’ve also taken into account their prior experience, their ideological tendencies, and what kind of leader they would be. Without further ado, here are the candidates to replace Sunak as Leader of the Conservative Party (if they survive the next election, that is).

A Tier

Kemi Badenoch

Experience = Minister for Women and Equalities (Oct 2022 - Present), President of the Board of Trade (Oct 2022 - Present)

Seat = Saffron Walden (Majority of 44%)

First elected in 2017, Badenoch spent most of her political career on the backbenches, a nameless Tory amongst 317. That all changed, however, when she entered the leadership race to succeed Boris Johnson. Overnight, she became a new conservative sensation, topping opinion polls for grassroots members and overshadowing other established candidates. Though she was ultimately unsuccessful - finishing 5th place in the contest - in the role of Women and Equalities Minister, Badenoch has carved a new lane for herself in the party, pursuing a combative culture war agenda that appeals to the party’s base.

She is now the bookmaker’s favourite to become the next leader and, according to recent polling conducted by Conservative Home, the most popular cabinet minister among Conservative Party members. Over the 2023 annual party conference, she launched a dual-pronged assault, courting business representatives and cajoling well-paid lobbyists in an effort to cultivate a financial base. Using her main conference speech to rail against liberal attempts to “re-racialize society,” and against Brexit naysayers who "think the answer to everything is the EU,” Badenoch’s actions suggest that she’s making contingency plans in the event of a Tory defeat.

When a leadership race is eventually called, Badenoch will be in a prime position to launch a campaign.

Penny Mordaunt

Experience = Leader of the House of Commons (Oct 2022 - Present), Defence Secretary (May - Jul 2019), Women and Equalities Minister (April 2018 - Jul 2019), Intl. Development Secretary (Nov 2017 - May 2019).

Seat = Portsmouth North (Majority of 34%)

Though she has been a cabinet minister since 2017, Penny Mordaunt gained international fame for her sword-wielding exploits during the coronation of King Charles III, where she represented the government as Leader of the House. Since then, her star has largely been dormant, overshadowed by other larger personalities who have played more active roles in the governing of the country.

In a still-active WhatsApp group of Tory MPs set up to support her leadership campaign a year ago called 'Even Greater', ally MPs compliment her performances at the dispatch box and share flattering articles, including one by The Times columnist Alice Thomson titled 'Penny Mordaunt teaches the Tories how to behave'.

Tory MPs, however, opted not to make Mordaunt leader in either of 2022’s leadership contests, and questions still remain about where she rests on the political spectrum. This nebulous position gives Mordaunt a lot of flexibility as she can realistically veer towards either of the party’s ideological groups, casting herself as a loyal, hardened Brexiteer or a more conciliatory candidate. Mordaunt appears reluctant to wade into the culture war, suggesting that she could maybe pivot the party back to the centre, especially if her ‘Red Tory’ credentials are to be believed.

Boris Johnson

Experience = Prime Minister of the UK (Jul 2019 - Sept 2022), Foreign Secretary (Jul 2016 - Jul 2018), Mayor of London (2008 - 2016)

Seat = N/A

The man, the myth, the legend. A year since his departure from office, Boris Johnson’s spectre still haunts the Conservative Party. No other person on this list generates as much controversy or acclaim as the former prime minister.

Currently seat-less, forced to painfully rake up millions in speaking fees and weekly Spectator columns, Johnson’s political career doesn’t seem to be over - more so put on stasis. He still commands a large following amongst the party’s grassroots, who view his ousting as a massive setback, both for the party’s popularity and government agenda, and he has many allies on the backbenchers who owe their careers to his landslide victory in 2019.

However, a future comeback would mark a drastic change in the UK’s political culture where ex-prime ministers are rarely given second chances. Once they’ve lost office, they’re never usually re-elected. Johnson thus not only would have to push past his unpopularity ratings with the wider public but also battle against political odds not in his favour. Not to mention he’d also have to find a new seat, something the party apparatus doesn’t seem willing to help him with.

B Tier

Suella Braverman

Experience = Home Secretary (Sept 2022 - Nov 2023), Attorney General (Sept 2021 - Sept 2022)

Seat = Fareham (Majority of 46%)

An immigration hard-liner and culture war warrior, Braverman is a hero to the party’s right flank. Her stint as Attorney General, best remembered for her attempts to give threadbare legal cover to successive attempts by the Johnson government to break the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU, proved that she was willing to break with conventions to accomplish her goals.

As Home Secretary, Braverman made the Rwanda deportation scheme the focus of her department, demonstrating that she is passionate about reducing immigration numbers. She also helped champion the government’s Public Orders Bill, which equipped law enforcement agencies with greater powers to arrest and detain protests deemed “disruptive” to public life. While all of these stances enamour her with the party’s grassroots, it doesn’t help her with the MPs or the wider public, both of which lean noticeably more to the centre than her supporters. By making immigration and crime centrepieces of her campaign, Braverman may find it easier to outflank the other candidates, but owing to the fact most of her colleagues allegedly dislike her, she may struggle to make it to the final runoff.

James Cleverly

Experience = Home Secretary (Nov 2023 - Present), Foreign Secretary (Sept 2022 - Nov 2023), Education Secretary (Jul - Sept 2022)

Seat = Braintree (Majority of 49%)

A recent spate of briefings to the press against Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is seen as a sign that potential rivals have identified him as a serious contender to replace Sunak when the next leadership contest takes place. Cleverly, whose allies argue is in the position of being liked across the party and having been loyal to different prime ministers, is the second most popular Cabinet minister among Tory party members, according to ConservativeHome's most recent survey. His time as Foreign Secretary has given him a much larger role, allowing Cleverly to demonstrate his powerful media performance skills, a desired attribute for any leadership candidate. Regardless, Cleverly is still unknown to the wider public and he hasn’t really asserted himself while in office, limiting his appeal to the party membership.

C Tier

Priti Patel

Experience = Home Secretary (Jul 2019 - Sept 2022), International Development Secretary (Jul 2016 - Nov 2017)

Seat = Witham (Majority of 49%)

Once the darling of the conservative right, since being demoted as Home Secretary, Pritil Patel’s political influence has waned. Outflanked by Braverman, Patel’s appeal as a passionate advocate for lower immigration isn’t as revolutionary as it was when she first entered government. For many, in the party and outside, Patel’s time as a major political figure looks to be long gone. Still, her hubris may motivate her to run in the next leadership election. Though with the inclusion of other firebrand and politically relevant candidates - like Braverman and Badenoch - Patel will find herself being squeezed on all sides.

Tom Tugendhat

Experience = Minister of State for Security (September 2022 - Present), Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee (July 2017 - September 2022)

Seat = Tonbridge and Malling (Majority of 47%)

The only self-acclaimed moderate on this list, Tugendhat hails from the party’s liberal-leaning One Nation wing of the party, a group whose influence has diminished significantly since the early Brexit days.

He first rose to prominence when he entered the 2022 leadership contest to replace Boris Johnson, where he finished fifth. Since joining the cabinet as Minister of State for Security in September 2022, he has consistently received one of the highest satisfaction ratings in the Cabinet league tables, perhaps a reflection of his aversion to the inflammatory politics championed by his colleagues on the right of the party.

While he is a less likely leadership figure compared with other heavyweights on this list - the recent emergence of Reform UK suggests the party will likely pivot to the right to siphon these voters away - he does offer the party a different path forward, one away from toxic culture war battles and back to the consensus-driven technocracy of the Cameron years.

D Tier

Liz Truss

Experience = Prime Minister of the UK (Sept 2022 - Oct 2022), Foreign Secretary (Sept 2021 - Sept 2022), International Trade Secretary (Jul 2019 - Sept 2021), Chief Secretary to the Treasury (Jun 2017 - Jul 2019), Justice Secretary (Jul 2016 - Jun 2017), Environment Secretary (Jul 2014 - Jul 2016)

Seat = South West Suffolk (Majority of 51%)

Yes, I know what you’re thinking - ‘surely you don’t mean THE Liz Truss, the prime minister who crashed the economy, was ejected from power after less than 50 days and was publicly humiliated by a lettuce?’ Unfortunately, I do. However, I think her chances of victory are slim to nonexistent, hence the D Grade. The only reason she appears on the list is because of her (dumbfounding) popularity amongst the party base - it’s worth bearing in mind that she did win the membership vote against Sunak by a decisive margin.

An avid Thatcherite, Truss vehemently believes in the orthodoxy of supply-side economics - massive tax cuts, benefit cuts and deregulation - policies broadly popular with Conservative voters and members. And the disaster that was the mini-budget has not swayed her. Since leaving office, she has toured the UK and America, giving speeches defending her ambitious agenda, which she argues was undermined by the “left-wing establishment,” and launching a new grassroots campaign, the Popular Conservatives.

Thankfully (for us and conservative strategists), Truss is still historically unpopular. With her premiership still a stain on the country and party, it would be a miracle if Truss could find enough supporters amongst even the backbenchers to enter the leadership race, let alone the party’s main apparatus. Even if most conservative voters still agree with her policy prescriptions, few will be brave enough to give her a second chance.