Trump's Hold On The GOP Has Never Been More Firm
Trump's indictments seem to be making him stronger with Republican primary voters, mystifying opponents within and outside the party.
Trump’s mugshot, taken in Georgia’s Fulton County Jail following his indictment over conspiring to overthrow a democratic election, was anticipated to be the beginning of his political collapse, a sign that his demagoguing had gone too far, even for his most avid supporters. What transpired was the opposite. In the three days since his arrest, Trump’s campaign has raised a staggering $7.1M, the biggest haul on record, mostly from selling merchanise with his mugshot printed on.
The debacle perfectly plays into the former president’s narrative of a supposed deep-state conspiracy to hunt and defame his legacy, reinforcing what many supporters see as an attack not just on Donald Trump, but the very idea of Middle America, the left-behind regions which have vehemently latched themselves onto Trump’s crusade since his election in 2016.
In effect, something observable since the very first charges were levied against him in February, a feedback loop has materialised - the more Trump is disparaged and attacked by the FBI, the courts, and the Biden administration, the more fervently Republican voters back him. With each new indictment, Trump continues to soar in the polls, coalescing a larger array of supporters, while his opponents are forced to look on hopelessly as their standing dissipates in turn. DeSantis and Pence, two candidates that were planning to exploit the indictments - presenting themselves as competent statesmen with none of Trump’s baggage - now see themselves fighting for scraps as Trump’s polling lead amongst Republican primary voters nears fifty percent.
And at this rate, there doesn’t seem to be a ceiling. Unlike other politicians, where even the threat of litigation would spell the doom of their careers, Trump remains stainless. He revels in the spotlight and wastes no time in twisting the political currents in his favour. It doesn’t matter what the press spews at him, or what the courts charge him with, Trump continues to walk away unabated. This attribute may perhaps explain why the devotion around him is nearing almost messiah-levels. Despite his wealthy upbringing and ties to the wider New York business community, Trump’s brash style of campaigning evokes a sense of fresh air at a time when politicians are considered sleazy, deceitful and treacherous. To Republicans, Trump is the archetypal anti-politician, a man willing to stand up for his convictions without fear of the consequences. Bewilderingly, some have even made equations to Jesus, likening how Trump endures a storm of abuse to the persecution Jesus faced under the Roman authorities.
To the outside spectator, unfamiliar with conservative social circles, this may seem insane or ludicrous, but these are tangible feelings and they manifested themselves during the first debates of the Republican primary. None of the candidates, bar perhaps Christie, were even prepared to attack Trump, whose shadow loomed large over the proceedings. Pence, a man who was nearly assassinated by the rabid fans his former friend cultivated, only offered up light criticisms in response to January 6th, and even Christie’s remarks lacked the passion many expected.
So cowed are his opponents by Trump’s sway over the conservative electorate, that none dared to use the podium they had been given to challenge his authority. Many seem worried that by criticising him they risk alienating conservatives, thereby jettisoning their own careers.
However, without one of them kamikazeing themselves to take Trump down a peg or two, it looks like the primary will be a walk in the park for the former president. Resolute and more passionate than ever, he seems on track to becoming the Republican candidate and Biden’s opponent in the 2024 General Election.
It appears, after all, that for some people, flagrantly breaking rules and customs has no consequences.